BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 13. The Kazakh tenge has maintained relative stability despite pressure from disruptions in oil export flows through the Caspian Sea, with financial flows becoming an increasingly important factor for the currency outlook, ING analysts said.
According to ING’s latest regional FX outlook, USD/KZT is expected to move toward 475 in one month, 480 in three months and 485 in three, six and twelve months from the current level of around 468.
The bank noted that the tenge has stabilized over the past four weeks following its June strengthening, while the impact of higher oil prices has been partly offset by disruptions affecting oil export routes through the Caspian Sea. "News headlines may suggest that the recent spike in oil prices seems to have been offset by disruptions in oil export flows through the Caspian Sea," ING analysts said.
According to ING, financial flows are now playing a more significant role in determining the tenge’s direction. Continued foreign portfolio inflows, supported by high real interest rates in Kazakhstan, are providing support for the currency. At the same time, reduced foreign exchange sales by the government are limiting further appreciation potential.
The bank noted that total state-driven FX sales declined to $0.8 billion in July, reaching a multi-month low. ING said the trend is consistent with a previously identified reduction in government FX interventions, which should limit the scope for stronger tenge appreciation over the longer term.
Kazakhstan’s financial authorities are also strengthening the technological capacity of the financial system as market-based factors gain greater importance. The Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market told Trend that it is using artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies in supervisory activities to improve risk assessments, accelerate analysis and automate data processing.
The regulator launched the first version of its unified supervisory platform FinAI in 2025 as part of its Digital Transformation Strategy for 2025–2027. The platform includes more than 20 supervisory tools, including 10 AI-powered services covering licensing, prudential supervision, anti-money laundering controls and financial institution monitoring.
According to the Agency, AI-based models are being used to assess credit risks, forecast borrower defaults, conduct stress testing and identify unusual banking transactions. The regulator said these tools create a "digital supervisory memory" that supports faster and more informed supervisory decisions.
Trend’s analysis shows that the ING assessment highlights a structural shift in the factors influencing Kazakhstan’s currency market. While oil prices and export revenues remain important for the tenge, domestic financial conditions, portfolio flows and institutional risk management are becoming increasingly influential. The expansion of AI-based supervisory tools indicates that Kazakhstan’s financial authorities are preparing for a more complex financial environment, where capital movements, credit quality and liquidity risks require faster monitoring. This is particularly relevant as foreign portfolio inflows supported by high real rates become a larger component of currency dynamics. Kazakhstan’s high real interest rates continue to support demand for local assets, attracting portfolio inflows and providing additional support for the tenge. However, the reduction in state FX sales means that one of the traditional sources of currency support is gradually becoming less significant.
